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What If I’m Wrong?

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Recently I went on the record about a seemingly self-destructive speech by Donald Trump. By going on the record, you can test your predictions. For the benefit of those who don’t care a whit, I predicted (more or less) that Donald Trump was deliberately self-destructing (or laying the groundwork for it) and Scott Adams predicted Donald Trump was going after Carson. A little time has gone by; let’s look at those polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
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By my scorecard, that’s Scott Adams 1, Anthony Francis, 0. Of course, time will tell, and things have happened recently to change the game (for example, 5 major terrorist attacks in 5 countries around the world, in which even I will admit Trump sounds better suited than Carson, sorry). But the hypothesis that he was deliberately self-destructing was at least premature, and the hypothesis that he’s trying to nail Carson seems good. Certainly, in the last few weeks, Trump’s popularity has risen to that of, say, Bernie Sanders, so he must be doing something right.

As Scott might remind you, it’s not good to bet against popular internet cartoonists. They might be right. On the other hand, I think the words “I was wrong” are three of the most beautiful words in the English language. They’re a sign of learning.

-the Centaur

Soon

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Soon I will update the Library of Dresan WordPress code. This is in preparation for a site overhaul, but before I get there, I’m trying to radically improve how I do my backups, which involves seriously upgrading the WordPress code.

In preparation for that, I’m backing the site up several different ways, making sure I have the files AND the database securely downloaded and safe. However, something always can go wrong, so keep your fingers crossed.

And if the site mysteriously disappears for a few days, well, you heard why, here, first.

-the Centaur

Beirut and Paris

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My heart, prayers and condolences go out to all those who lost their lives in the deadly attacks in Beirut and Paris yesterday, and to the families, friends and loved ones who are suffering in the aftermath of this outrage, which over the past few days killed almost 200 people in France and Lebanon. This has got to stop … but for now, you are all in my prayers.

The Sweet Smell of Renewal

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One of the things that I've been surprised by during this Return to my Library is how much I missed my own ideas. I knew, intuitively, that I used this external collection to help maintain my internal memories, but it wasn't until now, when a random album came up while I was preparing to go grab some food, that I realized it. The Matrix Revolution started playing, and I was not just reminded of the f@nu fiku series that the Matrix serves as a soundtrack to, but also an older project, DELIVERANCE, a novel set in the Library of Dresan universe. So many things have happened since then - a move to California, a theft in my car, a loss of my notebooks, a fortuitous sale of a new novel series, an ill-considered anthology, and a new project at work - that I had almost lost the mental context of all of that creative enterprise. Tonight, doing a little random cleanup, in the place which I'd prepared for myself, but somehow forgotten, it all came flooding back. Maybe all this effort to prepare a great space really is worth it. Off to get my wordcount on. L8r. -the Centaur P.S. Yes, it might seem a bit strange to go out to dinner right when I'm celebrating my Library, but if you think that, you have no idea how much of a foodie I am. :-D

Nanowrimo Continues …

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Somewhat over 25,000 words. Closing in on the end of HEX CODE. That is all... -the Centaur

Going on the Record about Donald Trump

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AS some of you may have noticed, real estate mogul Donald Trump is making his second (or third) run for the presidency (depending on how you count), and has been having quite a good show of it - topping many polls despite saying and doing a lot of things that would have doomed another candidate - such as disparaging American prisoners of war, associating immigrants with criminals, and, most recently, associating his opponents with pedophiles.

As a left-leaning moderate, I’m not fond of many of Donald Trump’s policies. But I am fond of Dilbert, and the excellent blog by Dilbert creator Scott Adams, in which Scott wrestles with many difficult and interesting ideas so you don’t have to (but you should). In the blog, Scott’s been chronicling Trump’s rise to power with what he calls the Master Wizard Hypothesis, which, in a nutshell, says that there are great techniques of persuasion, Trump is an acknowledged master, and most of the crazy things that Trump is doing are carefully engineered to get and keep your attention. Regardless of your politics, Scott says, you should pay attention to what Trump is doing, because you’re watching a master class in persuasion unfold on a national stage.

Scott, a trained hypnotist and student of persuasion himself, goes further to say that a Master Wizard’s persuasion often puts people into cognitive dissonance, where a person becomes uncomfortable when they are presented with information they don’t want to accept. Well, as a trained cognitive scientist, that characterization makes me a bit uncomfortable, because I see the conscious (or unconscious) persuasion embedded in that characterization, persuasion which is in the favor of someone trying to be a persuader: the framing is that someone presented with “information” is “feeling uncomfortable,” hence is being irrational. However, because one thing that can trigger discomfort is someone exhibiting a violation of what you perceive to be a standard, it’s also perfectly possible that you can feel uncomfortable confronted by new “information” that contradicts new beliefs not just because you are inconsistent … but because the presented “information" is wrong. So, in this argument, people could possibly just be upset with Trump not because he’s a Master Wizard … but because they sincerely disagree with him in their judgments about facts and policies.

As it happens, I’ve entertained for a while an alternate hypothesis about what’s been going on about Donald Trump, and it seems like it might be playing out. In fact, I’ve almost been scooped on it, so at first I wasn’t going to write anything. But Scott Adams has done something great with his hypotheses: he’s put his predictions about Trump on the table, so he can be proved wrong later. Feynman argued the same thing: you’ve got to stick your neck out far enough for it to get cut off in order to really see the truth. So, I wanted to go on the record about what I think’s going on with Donald Trump.

For reference, here’s what I think people are saying about Donald Trump:

  • Malignant Narcissist Theory: Donald Trump is an insufferable blowhard who’s doing well because he’s an outrageous bully with an ego so enormous he’s resistant to normal modes of shame, and is airing all the dirty laundry of the Republican party that the politer and saner politicians with greater experience have tried to sweep under the rug. Many political analysts hold this theory, and assume Trump will eventually implode somewhere between the debates and the campaign trail because the majority of Republican voters, and certainly most Democratic voters, will never vote for him (and there’s data for that). The idea, you see, is that roughly twenty five percent of people is the most who’d ever vote Trump, so he’s maxed out.
  • Master Wizard Hypothesis: Donald Trump is a highly experienced, well-trained businessman, expert at the art of the deal and his own brand management, who’s mastered a semi-secret art of persuasion. His campaign is a sequence of carefully crafted stunts designed to implode his opponents, one by one, because Donald Trump has no shame, merely a cold, calculating, highly trained brain designed to put the whammy on people, slowly convincing them to turn his way so he can ultimately get his way. Scott Adams believes this, and has analyzed in depth how many seemingly weird things Trump does actually make a lot of sense.
  • Tell It Like It Is Hypothesis: Donald Trump is a smart, intelligent, conservative man who’s gotten fed up with the way things are going in this country, like many other conservatives, and is gaining popularity because (a) he’s saying what many conservatives are thinking (b) he’s telling it like it is, without a filter (c) he’s got a lot of experience running a successful business and (d) now he’s applying his decades of experience to politics, hopefully making America great again.   

These all seem like alternatives, but they’re actually closer than you think. They’re all based on the idea that Trump has no shame (which isn’t likely true), has a lot of experience at business (which is almost certainly true), and is saying things that the Republican base wants to hear. The spectrum seems to be whether you think some of his more colorful antics are because he’s an arrogant bully (politicos), a skilled persuader (Adams), or a genuine conservative (the Republican base).

Now my hypothesis.

  • Genius Brand Management. Donald Trump is a billionaire whose greatest asset is his brand, and he’s an American who cares about his country. Running for President, while it costs money, gives Trump an enormous amount of free publicity - he’s getting an enormous force multiplier from all this media attention, far more than he could by building more hotels or casinos, starting another reality TV show, or running ads. While doing this, he decided to - sincerely - raise all the issues he really cares about in the election, or at least the things he cares about which resonate with Republican voters. Trump simultaneously gets an enormous brand uplift and sets the tone of the presidential campaign to be about issues which matter to him. If he’s elected, great: he’s run a mammoth multinational corporation, and can handle the Presidency. If not, he’ll bow out … just as he’s bowed out of every other flirtation at candidacy since 1988.

So, under this theory, Donald Trump would likely implode sometime between the debates and the campaign trail (where a majority of votes, not just topping a poll, matters, and a mammoth grassroots organization is needed), but regardless of whether he implodes, he’s going to have a huge uplift in his brand, and will have set the course of the campaign.

Last week, Trump appears to have imploded with a long winded speech, different from his usual polished self, in which he ranted about his opponents, outlined his policy approaches about just about everything, and ultimately finished with "How stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap?” His opponents have gone wild, and Janell Ross wrote an article which crystalized what I’d already been thinking: Donald Trump might be self-sabotaging. You read it there first, folks, but just so I would have the opportunity to be proved wrong, here’s what the other people predict.

  • Malignant Narcissist Hypothesis: The arrogant blowhard’s finally imploding. Example: at HuffPo.
  • Master Wizard Hypothesis: Trump’s now moving against Carson. See Scott Adams’ analysis, in which he points out Trump’s engineered a linguistic kill shot comparing Ben Carson’s pathological temper to incurable pedophilia.
  • Tell It Like It Is Hypothesis: Trump is just speaking from his heart, and won’t be hurt by telling it like it is. See this New York Times article "Republican strategists in the state were skeptical that Mr. Trump’s latest over-the-top outburst would seriously erode his support."

And now my take:

  • Genius Brand Management: Trump, having watched campaigns since the eighties, is fully aware that at one point half of Republican voters said they would never vote for him, and that falling behind Carson at this point could cost him the jockeying position he needs to get the nomination. So he makes an impassioned plea for attention, simultaneously trashing his rival as a last ditch hope, giving his brand one last spike - and reiterating what he thinks is important about the campaign.

As Scott might say, I remind you I don’t know who’s going to be President. I’d be a dumb man to bet against the author of Dilbert; I literally have his book on systems versus goals on my desk at work. (I haven’t gotten to it yet, but soon - I get the gist from his blog). And other politicos certainly are more practiced at this than me; I’ve only been following politics closely since, oh, when Bush was running. Bush Senior. The first time. Remember, against Reagan? I do.

SO anyway, the best hypothesis will win, because you can’t fake reality any way whatsoever. I’m going on the record saying I think Trump is bowing out of the race. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But if Trump has started to bow out, I’ll think about my Genius Brand Management hypothesis, recall that I said to myself that a smart man wouldn’t just use all this free publicity to pump his brand, but to make a statement to the American people about what he cared about. And then I’ll think about this phrase from his speech:

"I've really enjoyed being with you," Trump said. "It's sad in many ways because we're talking about so many negative topics, but in certain ways it's beautiful. It's beautiful."

Sure sounds to me like someone who has issues he cares about, bowing out after he’s said his peace.

-the Centaur

Getting it together

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What you see there is my "working stack" at home ... the piles of books for my most active projects. These include Dakota Frost (shelves to the left and right that you can't quite see), Cinnamon Frost (middle shelf on the right, middle center shelf and others below), robotics at work (top shelf on the right), Thinking Ink Press (bottom visible shelf on the right and middle center shelf), Lovecraft studies (middle center shelf and top shelf on the left you can't quite see), and general writing (above, below, all around). I accumulate lots and lots of books - too many, some people think - but there's a careful method to this madness, as most of these books are not recreational, but topical, filling out a library around things I'm trying to accomplish. This means that when I'm working on a problem on, say, a Cinnamon Frost novel, and get stumped, I can have the pleasant experience I had last night of glaring at a Wolfram MathWorld article, not finding all the info I needed, peering through the references ... and finding that the references pointed to a book I had on the topic, right in the Cinnamon shelf (pictured above). For a long time I was terrified of my own library. Well, not terrified, but I'd piled up and accumulated so much stuff that I couldn't effectively use it. This has been accumulating since the days of my condo in Atlanta, which was approaching near gravitational collapse, but I've made two major pushes to clean up the library since I moved to California, which organized it usefully, as I've reported on previously, and since then two major pushes to clean up the files. I've still got a lot go go - you can see more piles below - but now I've got a better system for organizing paper, I am starting to develop a system to get things out of the library and back to used bookstores (slowly, grudgingly, occasionally) and ... I actually find myself wanting to go in here again. The piles are still scary, but now I've got a nice reading area set up, which I can lean back and be cozy in... My current reading pile and art projects are intimidating, but now organized and useful and even attractive ... My cognitive science section has developed a cozy, hallowed feel, that makes me want to dig in more ... ... and at last I once again have a workspace which makes me want to sit down and work, or write: I can't tell you how healthy that feels. I need to stay on top of that. But for now ... time to get back to it. -the Centaur P.S. Yes, I do actually use all those computers and monitors, though the one on the far right is slowly getting replaced by the floating hoverboard of an iMac that is now struggling to supplant my MacBook Air as my primary computer (good luck, you'll need it). For reference, there's my ancient MacBook Pro on the left, which formerly served as my home server; the iMac that's replacing it, hovering over the desk, a MacBook Air which is my primary computer, and the secondary keyboard and monitor for my old Linux workstation, which is about to be replaced because it's not beefy enough for my experiments with ROS.

Why yes, I’m writing a young adult novel…

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... why do you ask? Technically, a Cinnamon Frost novel is an urban fantasy novel with a young adult protagonist. I am doing some work to make it young adult friendly, up to a point, but at some point you have to acknowledge that as much as we all love her, we've got a formerly homeless and abused teenage weretiger with behavior problems as our protagonist, in a world which is a "real" world, not a young adult friendly world - and she's supposed to be a math genius, and if I'm going to have a story with a math genius, dang it, I want the math to be real math, even if takes me a while to figure out how to coherently explain what the heck a "loxodrome" is. It's the spiral you get if you run stairs up the side of a dome, but your architect was lazy and made the stairs cut a fixed angle to the meridians in their drawing, rather than a fixed angle that's useful for constant climbing. Sigh. That's not clear either. Needs more work. Back to it ... -the Centaur P.S. And yes, I'm still on track for Nano.

Nanowrimo is going well…

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… just now getting to the point where I can think clearly. For a refresher, I’m working on the Spellpunk series, finishing up HEX CODE … and, since I discovered last time that I was actually writing all three Spellpunks in the same manuscript, there’s a small chance I’ll finish HEX CODE itself this month and move on to BOT NET. More news in a bit. That is all.

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Overwhelmed

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So, wow, long time no post. What’s been up? Well, I’ve been busting my ass to finish the edits to JEREMIAH WILLSTONE AND THE CLOCKWORK TIME MACHINE, which I finally sent back to Bell Bridge last Saturday at midnight. Then Sunday I finished up a pair of Jeremiah Willstone stories to the editors of THIRTY DAYS LATER, an upcoming anthology. Then on Monday I finished up writing up my comments on the audio version of LIQUID FIRE so Traci Odom could finish her reading. Then I joined a new team at work.

Phew.

This week, I’ve spent a little time cleaning up Dakota Frost #4, SPECTRAL IRON, but today, I started diving back into Cinnamon Frost #1, HEX CODE, for National Novel Writing Month. So, so much is going on I barely have time to blog. I hope to say more about all that’s going on shortly, but in case I don’t, I wanted to take a few moments out to fill you all in. Coming off the stress of all those projects has left me rattled - people ask how I’m doing, and I say “Fiiiine,” and have to clarify that yes, I am fine, but my body hasn’t yet adjusted to being in a situation that I’m fine, so I’m still feeling strung out. But objectively speaking, things ARE fine.

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So I rewarded myself with a nice dessert at dinner, and had fun at a truly epic haunted house with my wife.

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So all is right with the world. Sorry to be incommunicado for a while; More in a bit.
20151101_180704.jpg -the Centaur

(Im)permanence

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Hoisted from the archives … it was National Novel Writing Month 2013, and I was at the Write to the End writing group in IHOP and should have been writing on my book MAROONED, but I was very near my goal for the month, I had an idea, and was depressed about various feedback I'd gotten from work and life and editors and AAARGH! so I wrote this anyway.

SO anyway, IHOP. The Write to the End writing group normally meets in the side room, but not that night, and it’s because another group was meeting there. Presumably, they paid for that. Which is sad, because as a volunteer drop-in group we can’t pay for rooms. Nonetheless, IHOP feels like home moreso than most places we have met, even though it isn’t a coffeehouse and doesn’t have an attached bookstore. But I’ve learned, from the writing group, not to assume anything is permanent.

Write to the End has met in places that should have lasted forever, but didn't. Maybe we should have expected the small indie coffeshop Snake and Butterfly to dial back their hours (since they opened later as an experiment, for us), but who’d expect that Mission Coffee would come to an end? It was up the street from a college. People came in there all the time. But the signs were there, literally: walls and walls of pictures of a live music group that no longer met on the night we wrote.

But why should it be this way? We once met at Barnes and Noble, which was in the Bay Area before I came out here, which outlasted Borders, which might be out here after I leave (here’s hoping I don’t). Why couldn't we have been meeting at Café Borrone, which was running long before I came out to the Bay the first time, when I fell in love with writing in quirky coffeehouses?

But things change. Who could predict that physical books themselves might implode? If the bookstore next to Café Borrone, Kepler’s, disappears, so might Café Borrone. That’s why Barnes and Noble didn’t let us keep meeting there: B&N's business model changed, and they needed fewer community programs and more space for toys.

Even coffeehouses might end. Coffee could be made illegal. Alcohol was once. Seriously. Some people think that coffee is simply a drug with no stimulus benefits—the buzz you get off coffee is just withdrawal relief, and coffee has all sorts of health problems. I’m not sure the epidemiology supports that, but the researchers are out there that think that in all seriousness.

Perhaps there will be a new Prohibition. Maybe one day our grandchildren will look back on this and say, oh, how terrible it was that, during the Health Pogroms, coffee was outlawed for ten years. "Of course, we have coffee back now, but think of all the old historic coffeehouses were destroyed." Or even if coffee is not outlawed, we could have a Nazi takeover or a Soviet revolution or a Cultural Revolution that wipes out all of these types of meeting places.

So there are no firm places to stand.

But in Japan, there’s a hotel that’s been running for something like 1500 years — 400 generations in the same family. I know it’s a small bed and breakfast like hotel, but there are taverns in England that have stood since the 1500s. Think of it: we could have been meeting there, for the last two hundred years.

And that gives me hope, that we’re writing in the first two hundred years of the Write to the End group.

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Now THAT Was a Book Reading

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So my book reading at Books Inc in Mountain View happened, and I'm really happy with how it turned out. We had a lot of people show up - more than at first I thought - and there was a lot of positive energy from the people in the audience which made it easy to read. (Note: I took pictures before the event, but not during, because I was the speaker, and that would be just rude).

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I actually was less nervous and stuttery speaking to this crowd than I was when I was sitting alone in my great room reading the passages I had planned. The thing I'm happiest about, however, is that I planned what I was going to read deliberately.

Normally I read, by reflex, the first section of whatever new thing I've got. But sometimes the setup is not that interesting, so I've tried reading really exciting bits. But that doesn't seem to work either - people demand context.

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That led to a brainflash: I decided I should think not about what I wanted to read but what I wanted people to get out of the reading. I chose the first page and a half of FROST MOON to set the stage. At the last minute, I also decided to read a page and a half of BLOOD ROCK, filled with police, magic and vampires, to show progression in the world (and unabashedly to show off what I thought was a nice bit of writing). And then I chose to read the first half of a chapter out of LIQUID FIRE, tuning again at the last minute, to show off the action and adventure of "The Battle of Union Square." People seemed to love it - I even got applause.

What's more, the sequence of selections enabled me to talk about various aspects of the world I'd built - setting it in a time and place, making the action realistic, exploring consequences - and led into a really good Q&A session. Finally, I left a little time out to read the first chunk of THE CLOCKWORK TIME MACHINE, which also seemed to strike a chord. At the end, we had a line of people for signing, including one who bought a copy of the whole trilogy; many of those joined us for a victory dinner.

Wow. I am so happy that you all came, and that you all liked it. You really made my day. Thank you.

At first I thought just enough people showed up to fill half the seats, but I was wrong - there were actually many more people standing and watching who didn't sit down because they were late. I didn't see them because I was paying attention to the nearer audience, but I know this because some of them came up afterward to talk to me … and others took pictures and sent them to me.

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What a wonderful event. I want to send my sincere thanks to Alex, the whole staff of Books Inc, and the staff of the upstairs Cafe Romanza, who have not only made this a great experience for me, but also have made this environment one of the best places I know to sit down, to get some good coffee, and to find and read a good book - or to imagine and write one.

-the Centaur

Reading LIQUID FIRE at Books Inc

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So it's crept up upon me: the first author event for Dakota Frost #3, LIQUID FIRE, this Wednesday the 26th at 7pm at Books Inc!

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Well, as I recall, we had a small reading at Clockwork Alchemy, but this is the official premiere of the book! What's more wonderful is that this reading will be in the bookstore that hosts the cafe where a goodly chunk of LIQUID FIRE was written!

http://www.booksinc.net/event/anthony-francis-books-inc-mountain-view

Local author Anthony Francis shares his latest urban fantasy, Liquid Fire. Filled with spectacular magic, pyrotechnic action, and kinky romance, Liquid Fire is the action-packed third installment in the Dakota Frost, Skindancer series.

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I'll likely read a bit of FROST MOON to set context, then some of LIQUID FIRE, take questions, and finish up with a preview of something special coming soon!

So please drop in and support your local independent bookstore … and your favorite magical tattoo artist!

-the Centaur

An Outrage, But Hardly a Surprise

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Recently one of my friends in the Treehouse Writers' group alerted me to the article "Sexism in publishing: my novel wasn't the problem, it was me, Catherine" in the Guardian. You should read it, but the punchline:

In an essay for Jezebel, Nichols reveals how after she sent out her novel to 50 agents, she received just two manuscript requests. But when she set up a new email address under a male name, and submitted the same covering letter and pages to 50 agents, it was requested 17 times.

“He is eight and a half times better than me at writing the same book. Fully a third of the agents who saw his query wanted to see more, where my numbers never did shift from one in 25,” writes Nichols. “The judgments about my work that had seemed as solid as the walls of my house had turned out to be meaningless. My novel wasn’t the problem, it was me – Catherine.”

Catherine Nichols' original article is up at Jezebel under the title Homme de Plume - go check it out - but the point of raising the article was to gather people's opinions. The exchange went something like this: "Opinions?" "Outrage?"

Yes, it's outrageous, but hardly a surprise. I've heard stories like this again and again from many women writers. (Amusingly, or perhaps horrifyingly, the program I writing this in, Ecto, just spell-corrected "women writers" to "some writers," so perhaps the problem is more pervasive than I thought). Science fiction authors Andre Norton, James Tiptree, Jr., C.J. Cherryh, Paul Ashwell and CL Moore all hid their genders behind male and neutral pseudonyms to help sell their work. Behind the scenes, prejudice against women authors is pervasive - and I'm not even referring to the disparaging opinions of the conscious misogynists who'll freely tell you they don't like fiction written by women, or the discriminatory actions of the unconsciously prejudiced who simply don't buy fiction written by women, but instead calculated discrimination, sometimes on the part of women authors, editors and publishers themselves, who feel the need to hide their gender to make sure their stories sell.

I am a guy, so I've never been faced with the problem of having to choose between acknowledging or suppress my own gender in the face of the prejudices of those who would disparage my existence. (Though I have gotten a slight amount of flak for being a male paranormal romance author, we got around that by calling my work "urban fantasy," which my editor thought was a better description anyway). As a business decision, I respect any woman (or man) who chooses a pseudonym that will better market their work. My friend Trisha Wooldridge edits under Trisha Wooldridge, but writes under T. J. Wooldridge, not because publishers won't buy it, but because her publisher believes some of the young boys to whom her YA is aimed are less likely to read books by female authors. The counterexample might be J. K. Rowling, but even she is listed as J. K. Rowling and not Joanne because her publishers were worried young boys wouldn't buy their books. She's made something like a kabillion dollars under the name J. K. Rowling, so that wasn't a poor business decision (interestingly, Ecto just spell-corrected "decision" to "deception") but we'll never know how well she would have done had the Harry Potter series been published under the name "Joanne Rowling".

And because we'll never know, I feel it's high time that female authors got known for writing under their own names.   

Now, intellectual honesty demands I unload a bit of critical thinking that's nagging at me. In this day and age, when we can't trust anything on the Internet, when real ongoing tragedies are muddled by people writing and publishing fake stories to push what would be otherwise legitimate agendas for which there's already enough real horrific evidence - I'm looking at you, Rolling Stone - we should always get a nagging feeling about this kind of story: a story where someone complains that the system is stacked against them. For example, in Bait and Switch Barbara Ehrenreich tried to expose the perils of job hunting … by lying about her resume, and then writing a book about how surprised she was she didn't get hired by any of the people she was lying to. (Hint, liars, just because it's not socially acceptable to call someone a liar doesn't mean we're not totally on to you - and yes, I mean you, you personally, the individual(s) who are lying to me and thinking they're getting away with it because I smile and nod politely.)

In particular, whenever someone complains that they're having difficulty getting published, there always (or should be) this nagging suspicion in the back of your mind that the problem might be with the material, not the process - according to legend, one SF author who was having trouble getting published once called up Harlan Ellison (yes, THAT Harlan Ellison) and asked why he was having trouble getting published, to which Harlan responded, "Okay, write this down. You ready? You aren't getting published because your stories suck. Got it? Peace out." Actually, Harlan probably didn't say "peace out," and there may have been more curse words or HARSH TONAL INFLECTIONS that I simply can't represent typographically without violating the Peace Treaty of Unicode. So there's this gut reaction that makes us want to say, "so what if someone couldn't get published?"

But, taking her story at face value, what happened with Catherine Nichols was the precise opposite of what happened to Barbara Ehrenreich. When she started lying about her name, which in theory should have made things harder for her … she instead started getting more responses, which makes the prejudice against her seem even stronger. Even the initial situation she was in - getting rejections from over 50 publishers and agents - is something that happens over and over again in the history of publishing … but sooner or later, even the most patient stone is worn away. Legendary writing teacher John Gardner had a similar thought: "The writer sends out, and sends again, and again and again, and the rejections keep coming, whether printed slips or letters, and so at last the moment comes when many a promising writer folds his wings and drops." Or, in Nichols' own words:

To some degree, I was being conditioned like a lab animal against ambition. My book was getting at least a few of those rejections because it was big, not because it was bad. George [her pseudonym], I imagine, would have been getting his “clever”s all along and would be writing something enormous now. In theory, the results of my experiment are vindicating, but I feel furious at having spent so much time in that ridiculous little cage, where so many people with the wrong kind of name are burning out their energy and intelligence. My name—Catherine—sounds as white and as relatively authoritative as any distinctly feminine name could, so I can only assume that changing other ethnic and class markers would have even more striking effects.

So we're crushing women writers … or worse, pre-judging their works. The Jezebel article quotes Norman Mailer:

In 1998, Prose had dubbed bias against women’s writing “gynobibliophobia”, citing Norman Mailer’s comment that “I can only say that the sniffs I get from the ink of the women are always fey, old-hat, Quaintsy Goysy, tiny, too dykily psychotic, crippled, creepish, fashionable, frigid, outer-Baroque, maquillé in mannequin’s whimsy, or else bright and stillborn”.

Now, I don't know what Mailer was sniffing, but now that the quote is free floating, let me just say that if he can cram the ink from Gertrude Stein, Ayn Rand, Virginia Woolf, Jane Austen, Emily Dickinson, Patricia Briggs, Donna Tartt, Agatha Christie, J. K. Rowling and Laurell Hamilton into the same bundle of fey, old-hat smells, he must have a hell of a nose.

But Mailer's quote, which bins an enormous amount of disparate reactions into a single judgment, looks like a textbook example of unconscious bias. As Malcolm Gladwell details in Blink, psychological priming prior to an event can literally change our experience of it: if I give you a drink in a Pepsi can instead of a Coke can, your taste experience will be literally different even if it's the same soda. This seems a bit crazy, unless you change the game a bit further and make the labels Vanilla Pepsi and Coke Zero: you can start to see that how the same soda could seem flat if it lacks an expected flavor, or too sweet if you are expecting an artificial sweetener. These unconscious expectations can lead to a haloing effect, where if you already think someone's a genius, you're more likely to credit them with more genius, when in someone else it may seem eccentricity or arrogance. The only solution to this kind of unconscious bias, according to Gladwell, is to expose yourself to more and more of the unfamiliar stimulus, so that it seems natural, rather than foreign.

So I feel it's high time not only that female authors should feel free to write under their own names, but also that the rest of us should feel free to start reading them.

I'm never going to tell someone not to use a pseudonym. There are a dozen reasons to do it, from business decisions to personal privacy to exploring different personas. There's something weirdly thrilling about Catherine Nichols' description of her male pseudonym, her "homme de plume," whom she imagined “as a sort of reptilian Michael Fassbender-looking guy, drinking whiskey and walking around train yards at night while I did the work.”

But no-one should have to hide their gender just to get published. No-one, man or woman; but since women are having most of the trouble, that's where our society needs to do most of its work. Or, to give (almost) the last word to Catherine:

The agents themselves were both men and women, which is not surprising because bias would hardly have a chance to damage people if it weren’t pervasive. It’s not something a few people do to everyone else. It goes through all the ways we think of ourselves and each other.

So it's something we should all work on. That's your homework, folks: step out of your circle and read something different.

-the Centaur

Pictured: Some art by my wife, Sandi Billingsley, who thinks a lot about male and female personas and the cages we're put in.

The Centaur at Dragon Con

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So I'll be at Dragon Con this year, the convention I've attended the longest. It's where I sold my first book, it's where I've served on endless panels, it's where I'm an Eternal Member, of course, but this year, I'm a bit more: I'm an attending professional, which means I finally rate my own tiny, tiny little space in the program:

By day, Anthony Francis works on search engines and robots; by night, he writes science fiction and draws comic books. He's the author of the Dakota Frost, Skindancer series including Frost Moon, Blood Rock, and Liquid Fire, and is the co-author of the 24 Hour Comic Day Survival Guide.

And the really good news is, I'll be having a reading to celebrate the release of my latest novel, LIQUID FIRE, on Friday at 2:30PM! If you're a fan of Dakota Frost, you should definitely come by, because I'll read selections from LIQUID FIRE, answer questions, give away swag, and read preview versions of other future books in the series!

Title: Reading: Anthony Francis
Time: Fri 02:30 pm Location: Edgewood - Hyatt (Length: 1 Hour)

From my perspective, however, what's even more important is that because I'm an attending professional, I actually get to know my schedule in advance! (At least most of it!) That means I can not only show up at my panels with more than a minute's preparation, I can actually, like, tell you all about them! I'm tentatively scheduled to appear on three panels:

Title: Steampunk/Magepunk/Dieselpunk?
Description: Steampunk branches out! Tips for the market for the Punk genres.
Time: Sat 08:30 pm Location: Embassy D-F - Hyatt (Length: 1 Hour)
(Tentative Panelists: Lisa Mantchev, Stephen L. Antczak, Gail Z. Martin, Anthony Francis)

Title: Steampunk and the TARDIS
Description: Victoriana and retrofuturist Steampunk themes are popular in Doctor Who.
Time: Sun 05:30 pm Location: Augusta 1-2 - Westin (Length: 1 Hour)
(Tentative Panelists: Dr. Scott Viguié, Anthony Francis, That Darling DJ Duo, Ken Spivey)

Title: World Building, Part 2: The Multicultural Multiverse
Description: This Q&A covers the wide world beyond Britannia.
Time: Sun 07:00 pm Location: Augusta 3 - Westin (Length: 1 Hour)
(Tentative Panelists: Michael J. Martinez, Milton J Davis, Anthony Francis)

There's a chance I may be on a few more, but for that, stay tuned. Otherwise, I look forward to seeing you at my reading!

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-the Centaur

Down to the Wire

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So, just before the deadline last night, I completed my voting for the Hugo Awards. I was worried - what with trying to write my own novels and all - that I wouldn't be able to squeeze in enough reading to be able to participate in good conscience, but as of yesterday afternoon I'd read enough to come to a judgment, and an hour and a half before the deadline, I submitted my votes.

For those not in the know, this year there's a controversy over the Hugo Awards known as Puppygate. A number of authors who felt left out by past awards banded together in nomination campaigns, called the Sad Puppies and the Rabid Puppies, promoting "slates" of recommended candidates to save the Hugos from "boring message fiction". They've tried this a few times, but this year, these slates managed to completely sweep some categories, which led to some serious outrage.

Why the outrage? Well, first, by sweeping entire categories in their desire to "include" work that they felt was left out, they created the opposite problem - excluding a lot of work of high merit. Second, there appears to have been some back-room dealings in how the slates were put together, and story put forth by the leadership of the Puppy teams keeps changing. And third, the very idea that they're being excluded seems to be wrong - George R. R. Martin has written about this extensively.

And now we come to the point - because I wanted to see how far in this article I could get without addressing the real controversy - many of the authors sponsoring the Puppies are conservative or libertarian, and think that likeminded authors are being shut out of the awards by liberals and progressives (whom the Puppies call "Social Justice Warriors") that they think are rewarding work for its inclusiveness or radicalism, not its quality or storytelling - and who, sometimes, are punishing work because it's popular.

Unfortunately the political dimension of this is bullshit.

The "boring message fiction" and "popular exclusion" that the slate teams are complaining about? It's not just a left-leaning problem. I'm a "Social Justice Warrior" - a left-leaning moderate who consciously works to make his stories more inclusive - and in the left-leaning circles I hang out with, filled with nontraditional authors with purple hair who write race, gender and culture-inclusive stories - we're also worried about "boring message fiction" and the elitist disdain of the popular.

And much of what the slates put forward is also "boring message fiction". As I was reading this year's nominees, again and again in the material put forth by the slates, I came across paper-thin stories and articles which existed solely to serve a point or drive an agenda. And while no-one would accuse the slates of ignoring popular fiction, they had the opposite problem, sometimes nominating things just based on their popularity and not on outstanding merit.

Often … but not always. As I started reading through the packets and digging into the stories, I consciously threw aside the idea of trying to rig my reading against the slates, and just read what was there on its own merits. While I know the names of some of the people involved - Vox Day, John C. Wright, and so on - soon I was just reading, not knowing who nominated what. Some of it was good. Some bad. Some of it was just drek. And some of it stuck with me, probably for a long time.

Whodathunk - some of works nominated for the Hugo awards were actually really good!

There are some people outraged by the slates, and were determined to vote NO AWARD over any work nominated by the Puppies. The Hugos use preference-based voting, you see, so it is possible for NO AWARD to rank over some nominated work. This happened to Vox Day once, in which one of his works (I think a story) got sixth place out of five. He put a picture of himself as a Borg on his blog and joked his new name should be Six of Five - which I find hilarious, and I don't mean in the "making fun of him" hilarious way but legitimately hilarious. Personally, if nominated for a Hugo I'd rather win one, but, God forbid, If that happened to me, I'd so put "Six of Five" on a T-shirt or banner "Totally Shut Out of the Hugos" on my blog. (Note: if you, the reader of this, are personally involved with a future Razzie award, and I've produced some film or screenplay that receives a Razzie for Worst Anything, please invite me to the ceremony. I'd be honored).

But the problem is, the slates nominated work I actually like for a number of categories, including for Best Novel. I realized, even if they'd swept the Best Novel category, then I shouldn't penalize work that I liked just because they nominated it. I do think that there should be some penalty for gaming the system, but as I reflected further, I realized I shouldn't penalize any work in any category if I truly liked it - even if it was nominated by some person who might deserve censure for gaming the system.

For example, In the Related Work category, I quite liked the article "The Hot Equations" by Ken Burnside. I think it should be required reading for anyone, like myself, who writes or is interested in writing military science fiction. (My YA story "Stranded" in the anthology of the same name, while not military itself, is the first novella in a longermilitary science fiction series set in a "hard space opera" universe - epic-SF with a hard-SF edge, so Burnside's article was great food for thought for me). It's in a collection called RIDING THE RED HORSE, edited by Vox Day, which I also liked.

I'm sorry. I can't shoot down the article that struck me most among all the Related Work nominees just because it was nominated on a slate. And I can't in good conscience not credit Vox Day's co-editing job on that book - I've edited books and I know how hard a job it is. I was familiar with the editing work of a lot of other editors in the category, so he wasn't my first choice - but he was my second, and I'm sure as heck not going to put NO AWARD down for the editor of an anthology I actually liked.

When I was done voting and looked back on my work, I realized the slates had done in themselves. I did put NO AWARD first in a number of categories, because the slates had managed to pack them with poor-quality drek and "boring message fiction" that didn't maintain my interest - just, this time it was right-leaning message fiction, along with some very whiny-sounding articles. To be fair, there was a bit of whining on the left too, and some drek, and some experimental stuff that didn't hold my interest. But in the end, I'd found a lot of good material in all categories, some of which were on slates. And that's OK. If it was good, that's OK.

No matter what happens, some people on the side of the Puppies will proclaim victory. It's a classic technique: arrange to play the game in a way in which you can't lose. Fail to get your work nominated? "See, we're being excluded!" Fail to get an award? "See, we're being discriminated against!" Get shut out of a category by NO AWARD? "See, we're being shut out!" Get an award? "See, our work was great anyway?" So I congratulate them on their "victory," no matter what form it takes.

But I think the slate teams have made a more important victory, one which is potentially a victory for everyone: they've made people care about the Hugos again. Now people left and right are talking about them in cafes and phone calls. People are debating the ethics of Hugo slates. And many people, like myself, who can't vote in good conscience without considering all the alternatives in depth, suddenly got exposed to an entire spectrum of science fiction that, in my heads-down, get-my-books-done focus, I had been ignoring. I have now read stories and read articles and seen artists that I liked, both on the slates and off them, and I feel enriched, energized - and determined to participate more in the process in the future.

I don't find Puppygate black and white, or symmetric. The creators of the slates made an important point about otherwise quality work being excluded - but the champions of the status quo had an even more important point: you shouldn't game the system to fix problems in the system. Two wrongs rarely make a right. The impression they had about their particular political bent being excluded was wrong, the way they decided to address it was wrong, and they've been caught in a cascade of coverups and changed stories ever since which is not endearing them to the people they might otherwise convince. I'm not sure we need to "fix" the system, but I do know I'll be participating much more actively in the future.

But, hey, the controversy led to an interesting and exciting slate of nominees, and I enjoyed all this reading, no matter who proposed it.

And, in the end, how did I vote for the Hugos?

By my conscience.

-the Centaur

From My Labors Rested

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Well, another Nano has come to an end. I've added over 50,000 words to the HEX CODE manuscript, succeeding at the month's 50K as of a few days ago, and last night I added the framework for the last few scenes that the revised story still needed, putting me way ahead of the game. Calling it done … for now, that is.

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It's interesting to compare this with previous months, as I did before. Even after the huge push near the end, I didn't quite catch up to the last time that I worked on HEX CODE. I must have been going gangbusters!

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I'd love to keep going, but I now see why in the past, whenever I hit the limit, my writing rate dropped off. By my calculations, I have five novels due over the next two years - one down into the final edits, one in rough draft, one (HEX CODE) almost complete, and two more in lesser stages of completion. So it's good to take a breather … after climbing the mountain.

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Now, back to CLOCKWORK ….

-the Centaur

Viiictory the Twelfth

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As of this afternoon, I have completed an additional 50,000 words on my Cinnamon Frost novel HEX CODE … making me an official winner of the Nanowrimo challenge twelve times. Woohoo!

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This was a good Nano, in that I stayed ahead of the game more than I thought I had. Even a couple of days I got physically sick helped me, as I holed up with my laptop and typed. Paradoxically, some of the best-feeling personal days I had this month I got no writing done at all. Yet, in the end, I managed to stay ahead, way ahead.

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But, while analyzing this data, I found out something else … I haven't tackled Nanowrimo twelve times with one failure; I've tackled it fourteen times. You see, I remembered all the times I tackled Nanowrimo in November, and all the times I tackled Camp Nanowrimo, and even Script Frenzy. But ever since 2009, I've kept day-to-day word counts, and I found at least one more time I've tried Nano, in December of 2010. I was apparently having so much fun with CLOCKWORK TIME MACHINE that I decided to keep going. Putting all this data together revealed something very interesting: this hasn't been my best month at Nano.

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In a recent post, I said I thought I'd never been this consistently far ahead for this long, but was I wrong. Way wrong. In 2011, when I was tackling HEX CODE for the first time, I was so far ahead it's crazy: several thousand words ahead of my best times on all the other months. Apparently I was going gangbusters. This month was close, up till Friday and Saturday where I fell off a bit and then had to take a day of for writing business stuff, but today after writing 4,500+ words I ended up only 8,000 words ahead, but at this time in November of 2011 I was almost 13,000 words ahead.

Cinnamon is such a delightful character, it doesn't surprise me - though it does hurt your brain writing tens of thousands of words in broken English. Still, I'm really happy with how this book is developing. I realized, partway through this month, that this manuscript is actually the whole of the Spellpunk trilogy, and I reorganized it so the parts of #2 BOT NET and #3 ROOT USER were downstream of where I was writing, letting me focus on the story of HEX CODE #1, giving its own problems and climax. I think it's gone quite well, giving the story room to breathe, making certain events more rational because they can happen over time in a natural sequence … and giving Cinnamon even more time to shine.

I'll probably keep going on HEX CODE for a few more days making sure I core dump the rest of my story ideas, but then it will be back to editing THE CLOCKWORK TIME MACHINE in time to send it to Debra, then revising SPECTRAL IRON in time to send it to beta readers, plus two stories for an upcoming anthology, then an essay, plus conference travel, oh finishing the Hugo reading and voting, plus that wedding, and wait shouldn't I pay my bills aaaaaa ….

It's a wonderful life. Back to it!

-the Centaur

Soaring on Thermals

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As you may be able to see above, I've managed to do something I don't recall having done ever in Nano: consistently stay ahead of the curve for the whole month to date. By my count, I'm almost 8% ahead of the game at the halfway point … over two full days.

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While there were a few days I didn't get any writing done, I was always ahead of the game, so I never fell behind … meaning the "Current Debt" column was always positive … meaning I'm always in the black. Huzzah!

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This is a good feeling, but there's slightly more to it than that. I made a discovery. I'm not actually writing HEX CODE.

I've been writing the whole damn SPELLPUNK trilogy.

As I wrote, the story kept getting bigger and more bloated, while at the same time it was missing something. Threads left out. Pieces which didn't quite fit. The magical computer virus of the title, the "hex code", appeared in strangely spotty ways. And there were all these other threads, threads about the Werehold, the new werekin home.

I was thinking through how to fit these things together, and then started to notice something. I always had three titles in mind for the SPELLPUNK trilogy: HEX CODE, BOT NET, and ROOT USER (originally the last two were swapped, but whaddya know). And then I noticed: the first part of the book deals with the "hex code", then later a "bot net" appears, then later, in the last part of the story … a "root user" appears.

Am I writing the whole trilogy? I asked myself. I pulled in the 700 words I'd written on the second novel. I reorganized some sequences. I started fleshing out more and more pieces. Finally, I allowed myself to write a sequence that I had considered dropping, when I thought I was writing just one young adult novel. But if this part of the book isn't a part of a book, but an entire book in and of itself, that sequence was needed, was logical, was even demanded …

And 1400 words immediately popped out of my pen. (Well, keyboard, but you know).

So I'm even further ahead than I expected, not just on this month's Nanowrimo thanks to this burst of creativity, but now on the next few years of my life. I knew I needed to get three books out in the next year - THE CLOCKWORK TIME MACHINE, HEX CODE, and SPECTRAL IRON - and five in the next two years - PHANTOM SILVER and one or more sequels. But now, I'm closer to the end of HEX CODE proper than I'd ever thought I'd be, I have a huge jump on the sequels, these books will all be shorter than the 150,000 word behemoths that I'd been turning into Debra … and they'll have an inter-book cohesion that I've never attempted before, but which falls out naturally from the nature of the story.

In short, the story gets to breathe … and so will I.

At least, that's the theory. I still have five novels due in the next two years. So, back to Nano. I have almost 22,000 words to finish for this month, after all. But now I'm not just flying above the mountain; I'm soaring above it, rising on thermals to new heights. Now, beyond what I have due, I also have a ray of hope - and a plan for success.

Onward!

-the Centaur

Reading the Manual after Jumping from the Plane

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Still plugging away at HEX CODE. But even in the middle of Nanowrimo, when I'm desperate to make my word count before my upcoming adventures, even when I have a good feel for what needs to happen in the next scene … it still helps to do research. Above you see a pile of books fairly typical for working on Cinnamon Frost stories, plus one recreational one (I'll leave it to you to figure out which one from the negative space of the context) and here's how they have helped me. For those just joining us, Cinnamon Frost is a teenage weretiger with Tourette's Syndrome who grew up basically on the streets, and ...

  • Chelsea Cain's "Wild Child: Girlhoods in the Counterculture" helped me get in touch with something entirely outside my experience … growing up as a teenage weretiger in essentially a werekindred commune.
  • Brooks Landon's "Building Great Sentences" audio course (of which I have the printed notes above) reminded me to keep vary the patterns in my sentences, which helps me (in my terms) "solve problems" as I try to deliver the information I need to keep the plot moving while maintaining the right rhythm.
  • Ntozake Shange's "For Colored Girls Who Have Considered Suicide / When the Rainbow is Enuf" also helped me get in touch with the experiences that someone in a marginalized community might have, though I wasn't able use this idea in today's writing session, it might come up soon.
  • Patrick Newman's "Tracking the Weretiger" is just damn fascinating, and is helping me flesh out the plot of the rest of the "Dakota Frost, Skindancer" / "Cinnamon Frost, Spellpunk" / "Quarry" series.
  • The Jesus Seminar's "The Parables of Jesus" is helping me flesh out the moral dimensions of the story, by deriving the moral stances of the more "heroic" characters from the more "authentic" parables (at least, according to the Seminar) and deriving the stances of the more morally gray characters from the more "questionable" parables. Of course, all Scripture is profitable for instruction … but some parts of it do seem to get Jesus's message more on point than others, and by assigning a spectrum of goodness to different characters I get to play with a lot of interesting moral conundrums.
  • Mitzi Waltz's Tourette's Syndrome: "Finding Answers & Getting Help" is also useful for helping me portray the subtle aspects of Tourette's Syndrome, which Cinnamon suffers from, but which is notoriously difficult to portray correctly without it devolving into caricature. It has given me new plot ideas for the whole book and actually makes some of Cinnamon's weird behavior seem much more understandable, but I need to work it in.

As for the last book, for now it's fun, but who knows, she's a math genius, so maybe it will work in.

I didn't read all of these over lunch, but I got a chapter or a half dozen pages of each, and as a consequence: I found out some interesting other conditions people might suffer from, gave them to a character, creating an instant conflict, and gave Cinnamon a new coping tool, leading to more conflict.

Easily three to five hundred words popped out of today's salsa of reading, putting me way ahead:

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I'm doing my level headed best to not rest on my laurels though, as I have a LOT more to go:

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Still climbing that mountain. Still reading the manual as falling out of the plane. Still writing 1666+ words a day.

Onward!

-the Centaur