Press "Enter" to skip to content

Merry Christmas

centaur 0

20151224_214016.jpg

Merry Christmas! Isn’t it great that we made it to another one with the Earth still circling the Sun? After all the stresses and strains of the past year, it’s really good to get together with friends and family to celebrate this holiday. But what’s the reason for the season? Why are we doing this? As a Christian, I didn’t just get exposed to Santa and Christmas trees, but also to a lot of irate people convinced that we were missing the point - that the reason for the season was to celebrate the birthday of Jesus?

20150726_111146-EFFECTS.jpg

But why did he come to the Earth? To bring hope! Easter is when we celebrate Jesus’s death, sacrifice, and role in our salvation, but Christmas is when we celebrate our hope, his arrival, and the beginning of his message of hope and forgiveness on Earth. Whether you’re a Christian or not, Jesus’s message that we should forgive each other, forgive ourselves and start life fresh is perennial - it’s worthy of celebrating again and again - which liturgical churches do every Advent.

20151129_174151-ANIMATION.gif

But church rituals often seem disconnected from everyday lives because they’re held in special, sacred places. Christians aren’t just followers of Christ; we’re also ritual people, people who perform traditions again and again - each day, each week, each season, each year - to help remind us what’s important in our lives. So it isn’t surprising that we’ve found ways of bringing those rituals out of the sanctuaries and into our homes.

20151225_101428.jpg

The exchange of gifts can seem to be crass commercialism … but it’s also a reminder to each other that we care, a chance to do something nice for our friends and family, and if we really think about a gift, an opportunity to learn about each other and discover what really matters to our loved ones. Shared meals give us not just a chance to celebrate our success, but to get together with loved ones and share our stories, our companionship, and a few hours of our lives.

20151225_135942.jpg

Not everyone is fortunate over Christmas, and not everyone enjoys the season. So take a moment to do something for someone who needs a little lift, respect people who need a little distance, but above all, take a moment out to remember why we’re celebrating the season: to commemorate Jesus’s message of hope and forgiveness, and to share moments with the friends and family that we love.

-the Centaur

How to Be a Better Writer (the Short Version)

centaur 0

20151207_002854.jpg

Recently a colleague asked me if I had any advice on being a better writer. I thought I’d posted about that, but it appears that I hadn’t, so I tried writing up my thoughts. That was too much, so I summarized. That was too much, so I summarized it AGAIN. And then it was short enough to share with you:

The super short version is to be a better writer, just write!

I often recommend morning pages - writing three pages about random topics at the start of your day, even "bla bla bla" if you have to - you'll get tired of writing “bla bla bla" quickly, and this will help cure you of the feeling you need to wait for your muse.

This advice comes from the book The Artist's Way, which is a great course to take; I also recommend Strunk and White's The Elements of Style and Brooks Landon's Building Great Sentences on grammar and style, Ayn Rand's The Art of Fiction and The Art of Nonfiction on writing and structure, and The Elements of Editing and Self-Editing for Fiction Writers on editing.

I also recommend that you read a lot more than you write, especially writing of the kind you want to emulate; take a look at it and see what makes it tick.

For fiction and other similar writing I recommend finding a writing group first, not a critique group; there are several good ones in the Bay Area including Write to the End and Shut Up and Write.

For the kind of internal communications you're talking about, you might try looking at marketing and documentation literature or the great writers internally that you admire - also popular writers, technical and nontechnical, in the computer field.

As for blogging, my recommendation is to just blog - try to do it regularly, at least once a week or so, about whatever comes to your mind, so that you create both a growing store of content - and again, a habit that helps you just write.


20151207_002839.jpg

I’ll try to expand on these recommendations, but if I had to boil it down even further, I’d say: just write!

-the Centaur

FROST MOON On Sale on Amazon!

centaur 0

frost-moon.jpg

Like magic? Like tattooing? Like werewolves? Like feisty magical tattoo artist fighting off a charming rogue werewolf suitor with a stick, while the two of them might just be prey to a serial killer targeting the magically tattooed? Well, if so, you are in luck, because the first book in the Dakota Frost, Skindancer series, FROST MOON, is now on sale on Amazon!

  • FROST MOON - werewolves and magic tattoos and serial killers, oh my! for $1.99
  • BLOOD ROCK - vampires and magic graffiti and magic arson, oh noes! for $4.61
  • LIQUID FIRE - dragons and firespinning and fire ninjas, my goodness! for $1.99

I’m hard at work at Book 4, SPECTRAL IRON, and Book 5, PHANTOM SILVER, and even a spinoff series starring Dakota Frost’s adoptive daughter, Cinnamon Frost, starting with the book provisionally titled HEX CODE. So if you read these, I plan on having a lot more where that was coming from! I hope you enjoy!

-the Centaur


Eight Hundred Fifty Thousand Words

centaur 0

Nanowrimo 2015-11-30a.png

So another Nanowrimo draws to a close. The title says HEX CODE, but today’s writing was finishing out a few details in scenes in BOT NET (the second part of the Spellpunk trilogy manuscript I’m working on) and then a new beginning for ROOT USER (book 3). That new beginning, which played out a scene I’ve had in my head a long time, was very easy to write.

“That’s a damn shame,” says a distant voice, “so large an animal, in so small a cage.”


Muzzily, I grogs awake. What the fuck? Can’t they see I’m sleepin’? But then the words they’ve spoken starts to set in, balls in a Pachinko machine, rattlin’ in through the Pascal’s Triangle patterns in my brain to rack up a score of maximum annoyance.


The cage, you see, is large, for its type—a safety cage. Eight by thirty, made of elaborate wrought-iron vines, fashioned special from a welder we knows in Little Five Points, the safety cage is the largest and nicest I’ve ever been in—and the largest we could fit on our front porch.


The porch is big, and Southern, in front of a house big, and Southern, a third of the way down Fairview from Moreland, not three blocks from L5P. Pretty big even by Atlanta standards, but county code sez leave the front door unblocked, so thirty feet wide is was the cage limit.


Not that it feels limiting; there’s lamps and books and ferns and an ahw-SOOOME sectional sofa we found at an outdoor patio store, which stretches almost from the porch door on the left to the <regulation width with code #> stair down to my den.


It’s a full fourteen feet of sofa, fully twelve feet of it usable—which is a good thing, because stretched over it right now, covering just about its full length this very instant, is the enormous animal that the annoying interpopers have named.


Me.

That’s why the last day of Nano has that spike: let your inspiration flow!

Nanowrimo 2015-11-30b.png

That brought me to over 65,000 words, the most I’ve done in Nano, as far as I know, ever:

Nanowrimo 2015-11-30c.png

SO I have a new record to beat. But I also cracked 700,000 words on my spreadsheet … which means, since I’ve done Nano at least three times before, my total Nano total is 850,000 words.

Nanowrimo 2015-11-30d.png

I feel pretty happy about that. Nano has brought so many creative ideas to the table, I can’t even begin to describe it. Easily a half dozen completely new ideas came to me this month - one even within the final writing session just before midnight tonight. I have to credit Nano for giving me this inspiration.

Now, onward to the next round of edits on THE CLOCKWORK TIME MACHINE … and the 50,000 other projects I’ve been putting off, like my library … though I *might* take out a little time to play a video game, or, perhaps, read a book … you never know ...

-the Centaur

Perhaps I Spoke Too Soon …

centaur 0


20140725_201514_HDR.jpg

… when I claimed Scott Adams appeared to be right on the question of Donald Trump’s supposed meltdown. Scott, as you recall, claimed this was part of an elaborate three dimensional game of chess designed to trounce Carson, whereas I was claiming that Trump was possibly sabotaging his own campaign. Trump’s initial bounce and Carson’s stumble led me to award this to Adams.

Since then, Trump has publicly mocked a handicapped reporter, and demanded CNN cough up five million dollars to appear at the next debate. My predictive filter says Trump’s doing more self-sabotage. Scott’s filter says Trump will suffer a slight dip, then increase in the polls. Trump is actually just increasing in the polls, no dip. So, um, advantage to Scott, me, randomness?

My high school history teacher’s predictive filter would say, “Populist demagogues are always popular.”

Your predictive mileage may vary.

-the Centaur

Recordbreaking

centaur 0

Nanowrimo 2015-11-28a.png

So today I passed my all-time record (for as long as I’ve kept records) at Nano, completing 60,900 words at Nanowrimo. The key I think is not just taking this week off, not just keeping going, but daydreaming about my characters—then, whenever I get inspired, writing that scene. Almost all of the huge spurts you see below came out of that:

Nanowrimo 2015-11-28b.png

Today, it was pretty easy to write. I got about 500 words finishing up a few loose ends. Then I wrote a longer scene with Cinnamon and her fae mentor the Huntswoman, and almost a day’s worth of writing popped out of my keyboard. Then I decided to write another scene, one from ROOT USER (the third book in the trilogy, of the large manuscript I’m working on) and got 2000 words in about 30 minutes (!), all from choosing to write this:

But no matter how I tries to ignore it … I can’t ignore what they says next.


“And if they lose a hunt,” the jerkboy says, “guess what? They eat the loser—”


“You take that back!” I shouts, poppin’ to my feet. I hops over the nearest table and barrels down on the boy, who’s hoppin’ to his feet as well, his buddies standin’ to come to his aid, actin’ like I’m neither a girl he should play nice with nor a monster who could rip his throat out. “You take that back this instant!”


“What?” the boy says, eyes gleaming at me. “The part where they eat the loser—”


“We are not cannibals!” I screeches, snarlin,’ my whiskers comin’ in, my fur comin’ out.


“I bet she’s eaten her share,” one of the other boys says. “Like, weregazelles and shit—”


“The herbivores are our friends! We runs together! Nobody eats nobody on my hunt!”


“Your hunt,” he says. Everyone’s circled around us now, the boy standin’ out front. He’s big, so, I guesses, he guesses he can take me in a fight. Good fuckin’ luck. He grins with a nasty smile. “Like anyone would follow you—”


“I had twelve followin’ me on my last hunt,” I says. “Thirteen, actually—”


“I thought you could count,” he says. “What, you lose one? Eat one?”


I snarls and steps forward, and he leans back, fists up. I raises mine.


Then I turns away. “Not worth it,” I mutters, lookin’ at the huge crowd around us. He swings and clocks me behind the ear, and I kinda shrugs and shakes him off. “Not worth it at all,” I mutters, boltin’ through the crowd, walkin’ fast towards the exit. “At all—”


“Where are you going, Miss Frost,” says the proctor.


“The deans’s office,” I says. “I just picked a fight.”


“Wait just a minute,” he says, hand reachin’ for me, but I shrugs him off.


“Get off me, or I go to the safety cage,” I says, snarlin. “And call for my Mom.”


“Yeah, call your mother,” says the jerkboy, who followed me.

“Christopher, I see your mouth is open,” the proctor says coolly. “Close it.”

And the scene which follows, in which Cinnamon goes to see the Dean of the Claremont Academy, who’s more cool than even I anticipated — I mean, drill sergeant in a former life? Really? Makes sense. And helped me crack 60,000 words:

Nanowrimo 2015-11-28c.png

But the point is, never give up on Nano. It will continue to reward you, all the way to the end.

-the Centaur

Giving Thanks for a Post-Nano Surge

centaur 0

Nanowrimo 2015-11-27.png

I normally take off the week of Thanksgiving to finish Nanowrimo, and if you look at the stack of seven hundred thousand words that I’ve written in Nanowrimos, you can see the surge there clearly. (I bet it would be even more clear if I only counted the November Nanos, but I’m doing this graph in Excel, not Mathematica or Processing or R, so sue me for laziness).


Nanowrimo 2015-11-27b.png

But even so, it’s easy to see (if you are me) that I’m perilously close to beating my all time record for November, set in 2010 with THE CLOCKWORK TIME MACHINE with 60,164 words. And there ARE four days of Nano left, so I just may keep pushing on. My record per day that I’ve kept records is over 7000 words (almost certainly the mad scramble to finish LIQUID FIRE in 2009 after getting edits on BLOOD ROCK early in the month), so that’s easily doable. And my average for these four days is close to 4000 words. One year I even made 5300 words today, on the 27th, so keep your fingers crossed.

20151126_161455-ANIMATION.gif

But as much as I like to take this week off - as much as antisocial me doesn’t want to accumulate obligations on my time, which I freely admit made the first half of this week miserable from the temporal anticipation - I really do enjoy hanging out with my friends and family, and even though I don’t get the chance to fly home to see my blood family over this holiday, I loved having the chance to get together at the house of my “brother from another mother” and his wife and to join them on their Thanksgiving.

thanksgiving-at-dereks.png

Family, friends, and good times aren’t the only important things in life. But they sure do make life a lot better.

-the Centaur

Viiictory the Thirteenth

centaur 0

Print

At last, I’ve completed my 15th National Novel Writing Month challenge successfully! Victory, for the thirteenth time!

Nanowrimo 2015-11-23a.png

The graph says “HEX CODE”, but as I’ve said before, I discovered in July’s Nano that the manuscript I was working on was actually a trilogy - I already knew that Cinnamon appeared in a trilogy of books called HEX CODE, BOT NET and ROOT USER, but I was puzzled as to why the HEX CODE manuscript seemed both so cramped and so overstuffed. The reason? I was already writing the trilogy, with a discernible “hex code” appearing first, followed by a “bot net” then a “root user”. So I split the manuscript up … and just kept writing, until, earlier this month, I rolled over the end of HEX CODE.


Nanowrimo 2015-11-23b.png

Perhaps that’s why I was doing so well this year, or perhaps it’s because I’ve written almost seven hundred thousand words in National Novel Writing months at this point. But regardless, I had some real bursts of creativity in there. But even then, I have to tell you: it was always hard. The hardest words on this one were the last 8 … when I thought I was done. But you have to keep going! And the scene that popped out after that is beautiful.

Nanowrimo 2015-11-23c.png

Regardless, National Novel Writing Month is a joy to participate in, and I’m glad to have done it. The people and the connections I’ve made, the friendships I’ve built, the fantastic events like the Night of Writing Dangerously, the great writing programs that Nano supports, and the worldwide outbursts of creativity have made it all so worthwhile I plan to do it again and again.

20141116_214055.jpg

So, for now, I leave you with one last excerpt, from BOT NET … containing something I learned about my world of werekindred tonight, when I had to write … and let my creativity take over. As always, excerpts from Nano are first draft material, so, consider yourself advised … but I love what I discovered about Cinnamon’s warehouse tonight.

I looks down at them. All their eyes are glowin. The moon’s gotten into them. It will be up soon. I gots to go take them runnin’ now, or they’ll go crazy. I stands before them, rearin’ up a little, puffin’ my tiger cheeks, lookin’ down at them, and they gets the hint, and steps back from the wall, towards me, towards me, the tiger.

“Alrright,” I snarls. “None of ya get killed, or, as Mom would say, you’re grrrounded. ”

They all laughs, and I grins and stamps a paw.

“You feel the moon?” I says.

“We feel the moon!” they all shouts back. Whoa. Better response then I expected.

“I said, do you feel the moon!” I roars.

“We feel the moon!” the hunt screams.

“Then show me your beasts!” I snarls.

The lawyer strips off his jacket, his shirt, snarling, his head poppin’ out wolf so fast even Tully would have been proud of it. Hanser is a lynx before I’ve gotten a chance to look over at her, and the rest are poppin’ and changing. One buck is havin’ trouble, horns comin’ out of his head, fur crawlin’ over his body, but still no quad form, and I nods to Hanser, who pads over and licks at him playfully as he falls to the ground, crosseyed, eyes half pulled back like a buck’s.

But Willard, man, Willard’s havin’ real trouble. He’s bulked up, six and a half feet tall now, a black fur rug rippling out of his back, and oh-my-bod, what delicious muscles. But the shag carpet, it’s as far as he goes. He grunts, strains, then shakes his head.

He ain’t even taken his shorts off. He knows this is as far as he can go. Personally, I’m glad to have a half-human in the pack—easier to get feedback. He’s obviously got control, or they wouldn’t have given him to me, but is also obviously new to the Life. He needs help.

I prowls up to him.

“This your limit?” I asks, starin’ him in the eye. He nods, embarrassed, and looks away, but I raises a paw and catches him under the chin with the curved side of one of my claws, lookin’ at his head. “Listen to me: there’s no shame in our affliction. Repeat it.”

“Therrre’s no shame in ourrr aff—affl—affliction,” he says.

“Only prrride in our powerrr,” I says. “All of ya. Repeat it.”

“There’s no shame in our affliction,” the lawyer says, like, real articulate, even though he’s on all fours now, and his head’s all wolf. When’s this lack of concentration supposed to kick in? He shakes that wolf head back and forth, then howls, “Only prrride in our powerrrr!”

“Therrre’s no shame in ourrr affliction,” I roars, “only prrride in our powerrr!”

I prowls back and forth in front of them, listenin’ to them repeat it, those that can. The rest yip and yap and bark … except for the buck, who’s sittin’ there, dazed. His eyes are stuck halfway between human and stag, and he looks winded and dazed.

“But never rushin’ the hardest job any human ever has to do: controllin’ their own beast,” I says, steppin’ up to him. “You ain’t ready. There’s no shame; there’s always next moon. But this one, you ain’t ready. You relax, let the elders care for ya.”

The buck nods, still crosseyed, lickin’ his lips.

“Yyyouw waaant meeee,” Hanser yips, then goes quiet.

I looks back to see Fischer, standin’ there, under his broadbrimmed hat. He’s got the doc with him, black bag under his arm, I mean, seriously, cliché! But he nods to us, and they goes and sits with the buck as the rest of my hunt firms up before me.

“Four in front of you, Willard,” I snarls. “Or anyone else wanna sit this moon out?”

The pack howls and yips and brays, crowdin’ forward.

“Nnnever!” Willard says, beatin’ his chest.

“Yall wanna run?” I snarls.

The pack makes a yippin’. Weak.

“Eye said, y’all wanna run?” I roars.

And my whole hunt howls at the top of their lungs.

“Then let’s rrrun,” I roars, and Hanser at my side, bolts off into the forest.

Enjoy. And onward!

-the Centaur

Closing in on Victory

centaur 0

Nanowrimo 2015-11-22a.png

Almost at the end of Nanowrimo. Closing in. About a day’s more work to go. Perhaps I’ll get to enjoy my vacation.

Oh, an excerpt:

FROM: “Cinnamon Frost” <frost.csf@dwa.gov>

TO: “Norcross Office” <everyone-norcross@dwa.gov>

CC: austin.wj@dwa.gov, cagayan.rg@dwa.gov, waldona.dg@dwa.gov

SUBJECT: Your security totally sucks

Okay. Hi! Straight to it: your security sucks.

Oh, wait, most of you don’t know me. Well, some of you may know me from “when the APD almost got its ass sued off” or “that time I saved the DWA's ass in the tunnels,” but for the rest, uh, Hi! I’m Cinnamon. I like to gnaw on things and do math.

SO ANYWAY, y’all have been botherin’ me a lot, so I hacked ya.

Hacking a government agency won’t have any negative repercussions, now will it? But very fun to write...

Nanowrimo 2015-11-22b.png

That’s why the last two days have been so productive! More tomorrow.

-the Centaur.

What If I’m Wrong?

centaur 0

DSC01739.JPG

Recently I went on the record about a seemingly self-destructive speech by Donald Trump. By going on the record, you can test your predictions. For the benefit of those who don’t care a whit, I predicted (more or less) that Donald Trump was deliberately self-destructing (or laying the groundwork for it) and Scott Adams predicted Donald Trump was going after Carson. A little time has gone by; let’s look at those polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
Screenshot 2015-11-22 21.42.30.png

By my scorecard, that’s Scott Adams 1, Anthony Francis, 0. Of course, time will tell, and things have happened recently to change the game (for example, 5 major terrorist attacks in 5 countries around the world, in which even I will admit Trump sounds better suited than Carson, sorry). But the hypothesis that he was deliberately self-destructing was at least premature, and the hypothesis that he’s trying to nail Carson seems good. Certainly, in the last few weeks, Trump’s popularity has risen to that of, say, Bernie Sanders, so he must be doing something right.

As Scott might remind you, it’s not good to bet against popular internet cartoonists. They might be right. On the other hand, I think the words “I was wrong” are three of the most beautiful words in the English language. They’re a sign of learning.

-the Centaur

Soon

centaur 0

20131109_144656.jpg

Soon I will update the Library of Dresan WordPress code. This is in preparation for a site overhaul, but before I get there, I’m trying to radically improve how I do my backups, which involves seriously upgrading the WordPress code.

In preparation for that, I’m backing the site up several different ways, making sure I have the files AND the database securely downloaded and safe. However, something always can go wrong, so keep your fingers crossed.

And if the site mysteriously disappears for a few days, well, you heard why, here, first.

-the Centaur

Beirut and Paris

centaur 0

graveside.jpg

My heart, prayers and condolences go out to all those who lost their lives in the deadly attacks in Beirut and Paris yesterday, and to the families, friends and loved ones who are suffering in the aftermath of this outrage, which over the past few days killed almost 200 people in France and Lebanon. This has got to stop … but for now, you are all in my prayers.

The Sweet Smell of Renewal

centaur 0
One of the things that I've been surprised by during this Return to my Library is how much I missed my own ideas. I knew, intuitively, that I used this external collection to help maintain my internal memories, but it wasn't until now, when a random album came up while I was preparing to go grab some food, that I realized it. The Matrix Revolution started playing, and I was not just reminded of the f@nu fiku series that the Matrix serves as a soundtrack to, but also an older project, DELIVERANCE, a novel set in the Library of Dresan universe. So many things have happened since then - a move to California, a theft in my car, a loss of my notebooks, a fortuitous sale of a new novel series, an ill-considered anthology, and a new project at work - that I had almost lost the mental context of all of that creative enterprise. Tonight, doing a little random cleanup, in the place which I'd prepared for myself, but somehow forgotten, it all came flooding back. Maybe all this effort to prepare a great space really is worth it. Off to get my wordcount on. L8r. -the Centaur P.S. Yes, it might seem a bit strange to go out to dinner right when I'm celebrating my Library, but if you think that, you have no idea how much of a foodie I am. :-D

Nanowrimo Continues …

centaur 0
Somewhat over 25,000 words. Closing in on the end of HEX CODE. That is all... -the Centaur

Going on the Record about Donald Trump

centaur 0

americanflag.png

AS some of you may have noticed, real estate mogul Donald Trump is making his second (or third) run for the presidency (depending on how you count), and has been having quite a good show of it - topping many polls despite saying and doing a lot of things that would have doomed another candidate - such as disparaging American prisoners of war, associating immigrants with criminals, and, most recently, associating his opponents with pedophiles.

As a left-leaning moderate, I’m not fond of many of Donald Trump’s policies. But I am fond of Dilbert, and the excellent blog by Dilbert creator Scott Adams, in which Scott wrestles with many difficult and interesting ideas so you don’t have to (but you should). In the blog, Scott’s been chronicling Trump’s rise to power with what he calls the Master Wizard Hypothesis, which, in a nutshell, says that there are great techniques of persuasion, Trump is an acknowledged master, and most of the crazy things that Trump is doing are carefully engineered to get and keep your attention. Regardless of your politics, Scott says, you should pay attention to what Trump is doing, because you’re watching a master class in persuasion unfold on a national stage.

Scott, a trained hypnotist and student of persuasion himself, goes further to say that a Master Wizard’s persuasion often puts people into cognitive dissonance, where a person becomes uncomfortable when they are presented with information they don’t want to accept. Well, as a trained cognitive scientist, that characterization makes me a bit uncomfortable, because I see the conscious (or unconscious) persuasion embedded in that characterization, persuasion which is in the favor of someone trying to be a persuader: the framing is that someone presented with “information” is “feeling uncomfortable,” hence is being irrational. However, because one thing that can trigger discomfort is someone exhibiting a violation of what you perceive to be a standard, it’s also perfectly possible that you can feel uncomfortable confronted by new “information” that contradicts new beliefs not just because you are inconsistent … but because the presented “information" is wrong. So, in this argument, people could possibly just be upset with Trump not because he’s a Master Wizard … but because they sincerely disagree with him in their judgments about facts and policies.

As it happens, I’ve entertained for a while an alternate hypothesis about what’s been going on about Donald Trump, and it seems like it might be playing out. In fact, I’ve almost been scooped on it, so at first I wasn’t going to write anything. But Scott Adams has done something great with his hypotheses: he’s put his predictions about Trump on the table, so he can be proved wrong later. Feynman argued the same thing: you’ve got to stick your neck out far enough for it to get cut off in order to really see the truth. So, I wanted to go on the record about what I think’s going on with Donald Trump.

For reference, here’s what I think people are saying about Donald Trump:

  • Malignant Narcissist Theory: Donald Trump is an insufferable blowhard who’s doing well because he’s an outrageous bully with an ego so enormous he’s resistant to normal modes of shame, and is airing all the dirty laundry of the Republican party that the politer and saner politicians with greater experience have tried to sweep under the rug. Many political analysts hold this theory, and assume Trump will eventually implode somewhere between the debates and the campaign trail because the majority of Republican voters, and certainly most Democratic voters, will never vote for him (and there’s data for that). The idea, you see, is that roughly twenty five percent of people is the most who’d ever vote Trump, so he’s maxed out.
  • Master Wizard Hypothesis: Donald Trump is a highly experienced, well-trained businessman, expert at the art of the deal and his own brand management, who’s mastered a semi-secret art of persuasion. His campaign is a sequence of carefully crafted stunts designed to implode his opponents, one by one, because Donald Trump has no shame, merely a cold, calculating, highly trained brain designed to put the whammy on people, slowly convincing them to turn his way so he can ultimately get his way. Scott Adams believes this, and has analyzed in depth how many seemingly weird things Trump does actually make a lot of sense.
  • Tell It Like It Is Hypothesis: Donald Trump is a smart, intelligent, conservative man who’s gotten fed up with the way things are going in this country, like many other conservatives, and is gaining popularity because (a) he’s saying what many conservatives are thinking (b) he’s telling it like it is, without a filter (c) he’s got a lot of experience running a successful business and (d) now he’s applying his decades of experience to politics, hopefully making America great again.   

These all seem like alternatives, but they’re actually closer than you think. They’re all based on the idea that Trump has no shame (which isn’t likely true), has a lot of experience at business (which is almost certainly true), and is saying things that the Republican base wants to hear. The spectrum seems to be whether you think some of his more colorful antics are because he’s an arrogant bully (politicos), a skilled persuader (Adams), or a genuine conservative (the Republican base).

Now my hypothesis.

  • Genius Brand Management. Donald Trump is a billionaire whose greatest asset is his brand, and he’s an American who cares about his country. Running for President, while it costs money, gives Trump an enormous amount of free publicity - he’s getting an enormous force multiplier from all this media attention, far more than he could by building more hotels or casinos, starting another reality TV show, or running ads. While doing this, he decided to - sincerely - raise all the issues he really cares about in the election, or at least the things he cares about which resonate with Republican voters. Trump simultaneously gets an enormous brand uplift and sets the tone of the presidential campaign to be about issues which matter to him. If he’s elected, great: he’s run a mammoth multinational corporation, and can handle the Presidency. If not, he’ll bow out … just as he’s bowed out of every other flirtation at candidacy since 1988.

So, under this theory, Donald Trump would likely implode sometime between the debates and the campaign trail (where a majority of votes, not just topping a poll, matters, and a mammoth grassroots organization is needed), but regardless of whether he implodes, he’s going to have a huge uplift in his brand, and will have set the course of the campaign.

Last week, Trump appears to have imploded with a long winded speech, different from his usual polished self, in which he ranted about his opponents, outlined his policy approaches about just about everything, and ultimately finished with "How stupid are the people of the country to believe this crap?” His opponents have gone wild, and Janell Ross wrote an article which crystalized what I’d already been thinking: Donald Trump might be self-sabotaging. You read it there first, folks, but just so I would have the opportunity to be proved wrong, here’s what the other people predict.

  • Malignant Narcissist Hypothesis: The arrogant blowhard’s finally imploding. Example: at HuffPo.
  • Master Wizard Hypothesis: Trump’s now moving against Carson. See Scott Adams’ analysis, in which he points out Trump’s engineered a linguistic kill shot comparing Ben Carson’s pathological temper to incurable pedophilia.
  • Tell It Like It Is Hypothesis: Trump is just speaking from his heart, and won’t be hurt by telling it like it is. See this New York Times article "Republican strategists in the state were skeptical that Mr. Trump’s latest over-the-top outburst would seriously erode his support."

And now my take:

  • Genius Brand Management: Trump, having watched campaigns since the eighties, is fully aware that at one point half of Republican voters said they would never vote for him, and that falling behind Carson at this point could cost him the jockeying position he needs to get the nomination. So he makes an impassioned plea for attention, simultaneously trashing his rival as a last ditch hope, giving his brand one last spike - and reiterating what he thinks is important about the campaign.

As Scott might say, I remind you I don’t know who’s going to be President. I’d be a dumb man to bet against the author of Dilbert; I literally have his book on systems versus goals on my desk at work. (I haven’t gotten to it yet, but soon - I get the gist from his blog). And other politicos certainly are more practiced at this than me; I’ve only been following politics closely since, oh, when Bush was running. Bush Senior. The first time. Remember, against Reagan? I do.

SO anyway, the best hypothesis will win, because you can’t fake reality any way whatsoever. I’m going on the record saying I think Trump is bowing out of the race. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But if Trump has started to bow out, I’ll think about my Genius Brand Management hypothesis, recall that I said to myself that a smart man wouldn’t just use all this free publicity to pump his brand, but to make a statement to the American people about what he cared about. And then I’ll think about this phrase from his speech:

"I've really enjoyed being with you," Trump said. "It's sad in many ways because we're talking about so many negative topics, but in certain ways it's beautiful. It's beautiful."

Sure sounds to me like someone who has issues he cares about, bowing out after he’s said his peace.

-the Centaur

Getting it together

centaur 0
What you see there is my "working stack" at home ... the piles of books for my most active projects. These include Dakota Frost (shelves to the left and right that you can't quite see), Cinnamon Frost (middle shelf on the right, middle center shelf and others below), robotics at work (top shelf on the right), Thinking Ink Press (bottom visible shelf on the right and middle center shelf), Lovecraft studies (middle center shelf and top shelf on the left you can't quite see), and general writing (above, below, all around). I accumulate lots and lots of books - too many, some people think - but there's a careful method to this madness, as most of these books are not recreational, but topical, filling out a library around things I'm trying to accomplish. This means that when I'm working on a problem on, say, a Cinnamon Frost novel, and get stumped, I can have the pleasant experience I had last night of glaring at a Wolfram MathWorld article, not finding all the info I needed, peering through the references ... and finding that the references pointed to a book I had on the topic, right in the Cinnamon shelf (pictured above). For a long time I was terrified of my own library. Well, not terrified, but I'd piled up and accumulated so much stuff that I couldn't effectively use it. This has been accumulating since the days of my condo in Atlanta, which was approaching near gravitational collapse, but I've made two major pushes to clean up the library since I moved to California, which organized it usefully, as I've reported on previously, and since then two major pushes to clean up the files. I've still got a lot go go - you can see more piles below - but now I've got a better system for organizing paper, I am starting to develop a system to get things out of the library and back to used bookstores (slowly, grudgingly, occasionally) and ... I actually find myself wanting to go in here again. The piles are still scary, but now I've got a nice reading area set up, which I can lean back and be cozy in... My current reading pile and art projects are intimidating, but now organized and useful and even attractive ... My cognitive science section has developed a cozy, hallowed feel, that makes me want to dig in more ... ... and at last I once again have a workspace which makes me want to sit down and work, or write: I can't tell you how healthy that feels. I need to stay on top of that. But for now ... time to get back to it. -the Centaur P.S. Yes, I do actually use all those computers and monitors, though the one on the far right is slowly getting replaced by the floating hoverboard of an iMac that is now struggling to supplant my MacBook Air as my primary computer (good luck, you'll need it). For reference, there's my ancient MacBook Pro on the left, which formerly served as my home server; the iMac that's replacing it, hovering over the desk, a MacBook Air which is my primary computer, and the secondary keyboard and monitor for my old Linux workstation, which is about to be replaced because it's not beefy enough for my experiments with ROS.

Why yes, I’m writing a young adult novel…

centaur 0
... why do you ask? Technically, a Cinnamon Frost novel is an urban fantasy novel with a young adult protagonist. I am doing some work to make it young adult friendly, up to a point, but at some point you have to acknowledge that as much as we all love her, we've got a formerly homeless and abused teenage weretiger with behavior problems as our protagonist, in a world which is a "real" world, not a young adult friendly world - and she's supposed to be a math genius, and if I'm going to have a story with a math genius, dang it, I want the math to be real math, even if takes me a while to figure out how to coherently explain what the heck a "loxodrome" is. It's the spiral you get if you run stairs up the side of a dome, but your architect was lazy and made the stairs cut a fixed angle to the meridians in their drawing, rather than a fixed angle that's useful for constant climbing. Sigh. That's not clear either. Needs more work. Back to it ... -the Centaur P.S. And yes, I'm still on track for Nano.

Nanowrimo is going well…

centaur 0

Nanowrimo 2015-11-10a.png

… just now getting to the point where I can think clearly. For a refresher, I’m working on the Spellpunk series, finishing up HEX CODE … and, since I discovered last time that I was actually writing all three Spellpunks in the same manuscript, there’s a small chance I’ll finish HEX CODE itself this month and move on to BOT NET. More news in a bit. That is all.

Nanowrimo 2015-11-10b.png

Overwhelmed

centaur 0

20151101_183927.jpg

So, wow, long time no post. What’s been up? Well, I’ve been busting my ass to finish the edits to JEREMIAH WILLSTONE AND THE CLOCKWORK TIME MACHINE, which I finally sent back to Bell Bridge last Saturday at midnight. Then Sunday I finished up a pair of Jeremiah Willstone stories to the editors of THIRTY DAYS LATER, an upcoming anthology. Then on Monday I finished up writing up my comments on the audio version of LIQUID FIRE so Traci Odom could finish her reading. Then I joined a new team at work.

Phew.

This week, I’ve spent a little time cleaning up Dakota Frost #4, SPECTRAL IRON, but today, I started diving back into Cinnamon Frost #1, HEX CODE, for National Novel Writing Month. So, so much is going on I barely have time to blog. I hope to say more about all that’s going on shortly, but in case I don’t, I wanted to take a few moments out to fill you all in. Coming off the stress of all those projects has left me rattled - people ask how I’m doing, and I say “Fiiiine,” and have to clarify that yes, I am fine, but my body hasn’t yet adjusted to being in a situation that I’m fine, so I’m still feeling strung out. But objectively speaking, things ARE fine.

20151031_220959.jpg

So I rewarded myself with a nice dessert at dinner, and had fun at a truly epic haunted house with my wife.

20151031_204023.jpg

So all is right with the world. Sorry to be incommunicado for a while; More in a bit.
20151101_180704.jpg -the Centaur

(Im)permanence

centaur 0

PANO_20120315_194030.jpg

Hoisted from the archives … it was National Novel Writing Month 2013, and I was at the Write to the End writing group in IHOP and should have been writing on my book MAROONED, but I was very near my goal for the month, I had an idea, and was depressed about various feedback I'd gotten from work and life and editors and AAARGH! so I wrote this anyway.

SO anyway, IHOP. The Write to the End writing group normally meets in the side room, but not that night, and it’s because another group was meeting there. Presumably, they paid for that. Which is sad, because as a volunteer drop-in group we can’t pay for rooms. Nonetheless, IHOP feels like home moreso than most places we have met, even though it isn’t a coffeehouse and doesn’t have an attached bookstore. But I’ve learned, from the writing group, not to assume anything is permanent.

Write to the End has met in places that should have lasted forever, but didn't. Maybe we should have expected the small indie coffeshop Snake and Butterfly to dial back their hours (since they opened later as an experiment, for us), but who’d expect that Mission Coffee would come to an end? It was up the street from a college. People came in there all the time. But the signs were there, literally: walls and walls of pictures of a live music group that no longer met on the night we wrote.

But why should it be this way? We once met at Barnes and Noble, which was in the Bay Area before I came out here, which outlasted Borders, which might be out here after I leave (here’s hoping I don’t). Why couldn't we have been meeting at Café Borrone, which was running long before I came out to the Bay the first time, when I fell in love with writing in quirky coffeehouses?

But things change. Who could predict that physical books themselves might implode? If the bookstore next to Café Borrone, Kepler’s, disappears, so might Café Borrone. That’s why Barnes and Noble didn’t let us keep meeting there: B&N's business model changed, and they needed fewer community programs and more space for toys.

Even coffeehouses might end. Coffee could be made illegal. Alcohol was once. Seriously. Some people think that coffee is simply a drug with no stimulus benefits—the buzz you get off coffee is just withdrawal relief, and coffee has all sorts of health problems. I’m not sure the epidemiology supports that, but the researchers are out there that think that in all seriousness.

Perhaps there will be a new Prohibition. Maybe one day our grandchildren will look back on this and say, oh, how terrible it was that, during the Health Pogroms, coffee was outlawed for ten years. "Of course, we have coffee back now, but think of all the old historic coffeehouses were destroyed." Or even if coffee is not outlawed, we could have a Nazi takeover or a Soviet revolution or a Cultural Revolution that wipes out all of these types of meeting places.

So there are no firm places to stand.

But in Japan, there’s a hotel that’s been running for something like 1500 years — 400 generations in the same family. I know it’s a small bed and breakfast like hotel, but there are taverns in England that have stood since the 1500s. Think of it: we could have been meeting there, for the last two hundred years.

And that gives me hope, that we’re writing in the first two hundred years of the Write to the End group.

wtte.png